The reality is that NASA died the day Raila Odinga was sworn in as People's President with his Co-Principals giving the illegal "coronation" a wide berth. Although they would try to salvage the alliance under the pretense of Kalonzo being locked on the day of swearing in and would take his oath in a later date, the broke up would lay bare in the eyes of the public when only Raila handshaked with President Uhuru Kenyatta.
However, volcanic eruptions followed when Senator Moses Wetangula after being relinquished his position as Minority Leader, the embattled Ford leader offerdi scathing attacks on ODM not mincing words - "the divorce will be messy, noisy and with casualties".
But ODM did not take him seriously.
They took to the next level their disrespect for NASA affiliates, when they squandered funds from the exchequer alone telling ANC, Wiper and Ford Kenya to hug the cactus since ODM enjoyed the majority in the alliance. This triggered the three to officially walk out of this opposition outfit citing abuse of power by ODM. Thus, it was clear like day that NASA was dead.
That is now changing.
Since the day Uhuru Kenyatta allegedly promised to back a NASA chief, attempts have been made to resurrect the alliance to position itself for a nod from the President - but is it possible that the four can work together for 2022?
In Kenya, political coalitions are buses used in the journey to the state house. If an alliance is successful enough to clinch the sit, it usually form the government. If it fails , the parties usually get into deals to ensure its survival for the successive elections. However, in both cases, the coalitions rarely stands the test of time. At the right time, leaders usually regroup in new alignments to capture power independent of their previous wrangles because Kenyan political parties are not shaped by ideologies but grouped in tribal factions.
Therefore, as we get closer to 2022, anything is possible in the political terrain especially rekindling of lost love between Raila, Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Wetangula. If anything, Kalonzo Raila recent war of words are just spats - squabbles any (love) partners goes through but dies in the night.
Because our politics are viewed through the ethnic dimensions, NASA principals knows that they stand the best chance of slaying Deputy President William Ruto if they team up again, this time with the backing of a President. And that support is critically decisive for such a victory hence the reason all of them disagree with former PM Raila Odinga and not the President despite the two enjoying a better relationship tightened by the handshake.
There is a belief in the NASA crusade that they won the previous election but were shortchanged. That feeling may be erroneous to Jubilee enthusiasts but at least the Supreme Court, while not saying IEBC cheated in favour of Uhuruto, voided the 2017 election citing irregularities and illegalities.
Hence, if they can still manage to consolidate their support in their previous stronghold and team up with the President who ensures that those votes are counted fairly and the election is freely conducted, they believe they can book a place in the house on the hill.
Hypothetically, this argument holds if the fallout between Uhuru and Ruto is irreparable to the point where the President can look away when the elections are even rigged against his former bosom buddy. That is not to say that NASA have to cheat in the 2022 exam to win. On the contrary, the current toxic political climate can not favour a manipulated election without a revolt and Ruto thrives in anarchy.
What should be clear is that no any one candidate going it alone in a Kenyan presidential election can win. If Ruto is not able to lure Kalonzo, Mudavadi or Wetangula, and any other serious challenger in 2022, even if he buys every Kenyan a wheelbarrow, the chances of him winning is like that of an ant shaking a Mugumo tree.
2022 is a two horse race duel, as has been made clear by analyst, but the side that wins is the one able to lure more donkeys behind it. Ruto will play his Hustler Nation narrative, which seems to be working now, but at the right time will face this reality so that he seduces any member of One Kenya alliance. Otherwise, should he fail in that regard and go it alone, that will be the end of him.
WRITTEN BY EUGYNE OCHIENG AND MICHAEL AREGA.